Thursday, March 26, 2015
Here's One Way to Double the World's $80 Trillion Economy: Scrap Migration Restrictions
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Lessons Learned - The 1929 Stock Market Crash
By around 1925, more and more people were getting involved in the stock market. Then in 1927, there was a very strong upward price trend. This enticed even more people to get into the stock market. By 1928, the stock market boom had taken off.
At this point, the stock market seemed like a place where virtually everyone thought they could become rich. The stock market had reached a fever pitch. Everyone thought they were an expert, and stocks were talked about everywhere. Tips were given by almost everyone. Lesson number one: Beware when the fever pitch is high, and everyone thinks they are a master of the stock market, getting richer by the day. Beware when everything seems too good to be true, and tips are given out by almost everyone.
About this time, the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates. Then in March of 1929, the stock market suffered a mini crash. In the spring of 1929, there were more signs that the economy could be headed for trouble. Steel production went down, house construction slowed down, and car sales tailed off.
Lesson number two: Rising interest rates is a negative for the stock market. Also, when economic conditions begin to deteriorate, this is another negative.
In the Summer of 1929, the market surged ahead again, and all early warning signs were forgotten. From June through August, the stock market reached its highest price level ever. Nearly everyone thought it was a stock market heaven, which would never end.
Lesson number three: When the market seems too good to be true, it probably is, and at the very least, a correction is coming soon.
It is important to remember that markets do not go straight up forever. What we are seeing here is a classic example of mob psychology in full force. This is human nature at work, with the emotion of greed taking over many people. A real get-rich-quick attitude.
By August of 1929, many leading stocks were rising in price in dramatic fashion. This is called a climax run, and another warning sign of trouble up ahead for the market.
Lesson number four: When leading stocks, after a big run up in price, make huge price gains in a relatively short period of time, this is a warning sign of the market topping.
The stock market peaked in September of 1929. At this point, heavy selling in big volume began to happen, and became somewhat common place. This is a major sign that smart money was leaving the market. There were five declines on heavy volume throughout September. All this selling was happening a full month before all hell broke loose in the stock market.
Lesson number five: When general market declines on heavy volume begin to mount, it is definitely time to start selling your stocks. This is a major warning sign.
The Dow declined nearly 90% from its peak in September, 1929, to its July, 1932 bottom. Many people lost their entire savings, and more. Savvy traders saw many signs of trouble, and had plenty of time to exit the market, before it really started to crash.
Lesson number six: Those who knew the market warning signs, and acted, had plenty of time to exit the market, before it crashed, late in 1929. These stock market warning signs are just as valid today, as they were back then. Always keep an eye out for these warning signs, and act appropriately.
By Gary E Kerkow
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com
Monday, February 21, 2011
Nasdaq nears 10-year high; should you be nervous?
Nasdaq nears 10-year high; should you be nervous?
Technology-heavy index nears levels from dot-com boom; why it may be different this time
NEW YORK (AP) -- The Nasdaq finished within 25 points of its highest level in a decade Friday, reminding investors of a time many would rather forget: The bursting of the dot-com bubble.
Today, tech is hot again. Facebook -- which hasn't even gone public yet -- is worth some $50 billion. Online content company Demand Media rose 33 percent on the day of its initial public offering last month. The Nasdaq composite index closed Friday at 2,834, still only a little more than half its all-time closing high of 5,049 in March 2000. But the index of mostly tech stocks is up 26 percent over the past 12 months.
Should investors be worried about another bubble? Not really, because there's a twist this time around: Technology companies are making money and may valued correctly.
"It is night and day compared to 10 years ago," says Barry Mills, the manager of the $400 million Dreyfus Technology Growth fund. "These business models are real. The revenues are real, and the cash flows are real."
Consider this: Judging by diluted earnings per share, a conservative method of valuing what a company's stocks are worth, the companies in the Nasdaq index were collectively earning $39.28 per share in December 1999 and priced at 103.6 times their annual earnings. Now, the index has diluted earnings per share of $127.64 and a price-earnings ratio of 22.11.
The economic recovery in the U.S. is one reason that technology companies are earning such high profits. Companies put off upgrading their computer systems and other large purchases during the worst days of the recession, and are making up for that now. Others are investing in new technology before they add employees.
International growth is another reason to be optimistic. Half of the profits of the technology companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index come from outside North America, says Bill Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC Asset Management. China is now the world's second-largest market for PCs, and consumers in emerging market countries are showing strong demand for smart phones.
Technology companies in the S&P 500, a close proxy for the Nasdaq composite, are up 8.4 percent so far this year, about 2 percentage points more than the index as a whole. Last year, tech companies returned 10 percent after dividends, compared with the 15 percent return of the full index.
And tech stocks as a whole may be doing better than index returns show. That's because large companies -- with the exception of Apple -- that were hot stocks 10 years ago have matured and their stocks have stalled. "The Microsofts, Yahoos, and Googles of the world aren't growing like they used to," says Michael Sansoterra, manager of the $510 million RidgeWorth Large Cap Growth fund.
Bigger companies have a larger weighting in the Nasdaq index than smaller ones. Microsoft, for instance, makes up 5.6 percent of the index. The company has fallen 6.6 percent over the past 12 months.
And now to the question on the mind of any investor who was once burned by a bubble: Is it too late to get in?
Stock valuations certainly don't suggest so. Tech stocks in the S&P 500 are priced at 13.3 times earnings, which is just 0.3 more than the broad index. Not only that, but they are cheaper than they were a year ago, when they cost 15.4 times earnings. With stocks trading at reasonable levels, it's harder to make an epic mistake. Such as, say, buying technology stocks in June 2001, when they cost 128.3 times earnings.
"I'm still finding a lot of good values out there," says Samuel Dedio, manager of the $108 million Artio U.S. Smallcap fund. "There looks to be a lot more upside ahead of this."
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
How recession change us
AP Source: Ally Financial meets with banks on IPO AP Source: Ally Financial meets with investment bankers this week to choose team for IPO
AP Source: Ally Financial meets with banks on IPO
AP Source: Ally Financial meets with investment bankers this week to choose team for IPO
DETROIT (AP) -- A person briefed on the matter says Ally Financial Inc. is meeting with investment bankers this week to choose the team that will handle the initial public stock offering for the former financing arm of General Motors.
Ally is now 74 percent owned by the U.S. government because of a $17.2 billion bailout during the financial crisis. The government is hoping to get some of its money back with an IPO.
The person says bankers are making presentations to Ally on Wednesday and Thursday to get the underwriting business. The person says banks will make suggestions about the size and timing of any stock offer. The person did not want to be identified because the plans are not public.
General Motors declares quarterly dividend General Motors declares quarterly dividend of about 64.7 cents per share
DETROIT (AP) -- General Motors says its board is declaring a quarterly dividend of about 64.7 cents per share on its Series B mandatory convertible junior preferred stock.
The dividend will total $64.7 million. It is payable March 1 to those who own stock as of Feb. 15.
The automaker sought bankruptcy protection in 2009 and accepted nearly $50 billion in government help. The new GM had an initial public offering of stock in November.
Its global sales grew 12 percent last year, and it turned a $4.2 billion profit in the first nine months of the year. Financial results for the final three months of 2010 aren't in yet, but more profit is expected.
Dow breaks through 12,000, first time since 2008 Dow Jones industrial average trades above 12,000 for the first time since June 2008
Dow breaks through 12,000, first time since 2008
Dow Jones industrial average trades above 12,000 for the first time since June 2008
NEW YORK (AP) -- The Dow Jones industrial average broke through 12,000 for the first time in two and half years Wednesday but edged lower in afternoon trading.
Investors were encouraged by President Barack Obama's call to overhaul taxes on businesses and a jump in new home sales in December. The gains were held back by weak profit forecasts from Boeing Co., Xerox Corp. and other big names.
Obama said in his State of the Union address late Tuesday that he wanted to close corporate tax loopholes and use the additional revenue to lower tax rates on businesses for the first time in 25 years.
That change would be popular with business leaders from both political parties. The U.S. has some of the highest corporate tax rates in the industrialized world.
"If he can take steps to simplify the tax codes, be it for individuals or corporations, I think it would be a lot easier to do business," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 7, or 0.1 percent, to 11,984 in afternoon trading. It went as high as 12,020 earlier. The last time the Dow traded above or closed above 12,000 was in June 2008.
Boeing was the worst performer of the 30 stocks in the Dow average. Boeing fell 3.3 percent after saying its 2011 profit would be hurt by delays to its new 787 aircraft and higher pension expenses.
Xerox fell 8 percent. The company issued a weak earnings forecast and said its longtime chief financial officer, Lawrence A. Zimmerman, was retiring.
Eastman Kodak Co. fell 8.2 percent. The company's income fell 95 percent on weaker revenue from its camera business and lower royalties from digital imaging.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 7, or 0.6 percent, to 1,298. The last time the S&P index closed above 1,300 was Aug. 28, 2008.
The Nasdaq composite index rose 22, or 0.8 percent, to 2,742.
The Commerce Department reported that new home purchases rose 17.5 percent in December compared with November. Despite the strong one-month jump, new home sales for all of 2010 fell to the lowest level on records going back 47 years.
Bond prices fell, sending their yields higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.40 percent from 3.34 percent late Tuesday.
Later in the day, the Federal Reserve will release a statement from its latest policy meeting. It's not expected to announce any changes to interest rates or the Fed's $600 billion bond-buying program.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Unemployment benefit applications drop sharply Number of people applying for unemployment benefits drops to lowest level since July 2008
Unemployment benefit applications drop sharply
Number of people applying for unemployment benefits drops to lowest level since July 2008
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of people applying for unemployment benefits fell to its lowest point in nearly two and a half years, a sign that the job market is slowly improving.
Applications dropped by 34,000 to 388,000, the fewest since July 2008, the Labor Department said Thursday. The number of applications has either fallen or remained unchanged in five of the past six weeks.
Fewer than 425,000 people seeking unemployment benefits signals modest job growth. But economists say applications need to fall consistently to 375,000 or below to bring down the unemployment rate. Applications for unemployment benefits peaked during the recession at 651,000 in March 2009.
The latest report, which covers the week with the Christmas holiday, is considered by some economists to be less reliable than most. One reason is that many state offices close for at least one day. Other seasonal factors make the report more volatile.
Still, a department analyst said there were no unusual factors affecting the report and that it considers the impact of the holiday.
Economists said what matters most is the downward trend.
"If we can continue this improving trend, we'll likely see stronger job growth in 2011," said Benjamin Reitzes, an economist at BMO Capital Markets.
Separately, the number of people who signed contracts to buy homes rose in November, the fourth increase since contract signings hit a low point in June.
The National Association of Realtors said its index of sales agreements for previously occupied homes increased 3.5 percent last month from October. Still, this year's pace of completed home sales -- which the Realtors group measures in a separate report -- is shaping up to be the slowest in 13 years.
Historically low mortgage rates have done little to boost the struggling housing market. This week the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to its highest level in seven months. It was up to 4.86 percent from 4.81 percent in the previous week, mortgage giant Freddie Mac said. It had been 4.17 percent last month, a 40-year low.
Applications are the closest thing to a real-time snapshot of the job market. They reflect the level of layoffs but can also indicate whether companies are willing to add workers.
The four-week average, a less-volatile measure, dropped by 12,500 to 414,000 in the week ending Dec. 25. That's the lowest level since late July 2008.
For most of the year applications hovered around 450,000 before dropping below that number in November. The four-week average has fallen by more than 40,000 in the past two months -- a sign that hiring could accelerate in the coming months.
Employers added a net total of only 39,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department said earlier this month, and the unemployment rose to 9.8 percent.
Most economists expect the December jobs report will show larger job gains. The report comes out on Jan. 7.
Reitzes said that employers likely added 150,000 net new jobs this month. He also projects the unemployment rate will tick down to 9.7 percent. The monthly total of new jobs could increase next year if claims continue dropping steadily, he said.
The total number of people receiving unemployment benefits rose in the week ending Dec. 18 to 4.13 million.
That doesn't include millions of unemployed workers receiving extended benefits under an emergency program set up during the recession. About 4.5 million people are receiving extended benefits for up to 99 weeks. All told, nearly 8.9 million people obtained unemployment benefits in the week ending Dec. 11, the latest data available.
Spain PM says economy will grow in 4th quarter Spain PM confident economy will show growth again in 4th quarter, confirming end of recession
Spain PM says economy will grow in 4th quarter
Spain PM confident economy will show growth again in 4th quarter, confirming end of recession
MADRID (AP) -- Spain's prime minister said Thursday he expected the Spanish economy to grow again in the final three months of the year after a flat third quarter performance raised fears that the eurozone's fourth largest economy could be heading back into recession.
Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said his prediction last year that 2010 would see a return to growth had been vindicated, but that further reforms were necessary in the year ahead to strengthen the economy.
"This has happened." he said. "But we know that it is slow and weak growth and we still have decisive tasks ahead to consolidate and strengthen that growth."
Giving reporters an end-of-year review of the country's economic and political situation, Zapatero said none of the three quarters this year had falling output and that he expected the final quarter to show growth had returned --official figures for the fourth quarter are not due till early 2011.
The Spanish economy posted a flat quarterly performance during the July-September period though it rose 0.2 percent on a year-on-year basis -- the first such rise in seven quarters. In the first two quarters of the year, growth was extremely tepid.
Spain's recovery from recession has been the slowest of Europe's main economies, such as Germany and France.
The country's recession was triggered by a collapse in its key real estate sector during the international financial crisis.
One of the government's chief tasks is to slash a swollen deficit from 11.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2009 to within the European Union limit of 3 percent by 2013.
Zapatero said the government was on track to meet those objectives following a series of labor market reforms and austerity measures introduced earlier this year.
However, international bodies insist Spain needs to do more.
Zapatero said he was determined to present reforms to the country's pension system -- including pushing back retirement age from 65 years to 67 years -- by the end of next month.
"It would be doing the country a disservice not to make these changes now," Zapatero said.
He said that the raised retirement age would be phased in gradually between 2013 and 2027.
Zapatero argued that adjustments to how pensions are calculated are needed now if the system is not to collapse in the coming years as the number of people retiring swells.
The planned change in retirement age has triggered threats from unions of a second general strike, following one called in September against the austerity measures and labor reforms.
Zapatero said he was confident 2011 would lead to greater employment and help bring down a jobless rate of nearly 20 percent, the highest rate in the eurozone.
The premier also announced increases of between 1 percent and 2 percent for pensioners and minimum wage earners, saying that even in hard times the government would not forget those who had least.
China to go after Internet phone services China plans to go after Internet phone services in move to protect state-owned telecoms
China plans to go after Internet phone services in move to protect state-owned telecoms
BEIJING (AP) -- China is going after Internet phone services such as Skype in a move to protect the country's state-owned telephone companies, causing alarm among consumers who rely on cheap Internet calls.
A notice by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on its website this month says it's working to fight "illegal Internet phone services" but doesn't specify any actions.
Experts say companies like Skype operate in a legal gray area and that the notice is a warning to them not to grow too big or to challenge the state-owned telecoms.
China, which on Thursday announced its number of Internet users rose to 450 million this year, also has a strong interest in exercising tight control over information, and Skype has been a popular tool with activists and others who want to share information relatively freely.
The ministry's move, however, also has business in mind. China has said only state-owned telecoms China Telecom and China Unicom have the right to offer Internet phone services for calls that link telephones and computers.
But few do. The country's major telecoms have been offering Internet phone services only on a trial basis in four cities, according to Kan Kaili, a director of China VoIP & Digital Telecom Inc., a company that has offered Internet phone services. That leaves the market to the hundreds of small-scale companies have sprung up.
"This notice is actually protecting the telecoms' traditional voice services," said Kan, who is also a professor at the Beijing University of Post and Telecommunications. It's "obviously a wrong thing, absolutely wrong."
The ministry's move is a warning to Skype and similar companies not to expand too much in China, said Wang Yuquan, chief consultant for research firm Frost and Sullivan in Beijing.
"If the ministry hadn't made this announcement, I think Skype would have offered its services in a very large scale. Now, with the announcement, it can't," he said.
Skype did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Telephones at the ministry rang unanswered Thursday evening.
China's number of Internet phone users is not known, but a commentary in the Beijing News on Thursday estimated it at 15 million.
Stocks down as investors worry over mortgage rates Stocks edge lower as investors worry over mortgage rates, brush aside positive economic data
Stocks down as investors worry over mortgage rates
Stocks edge lower as investors worry over mortgage rates, brush aside positive economic data
NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors are brushing aside some positive economic news on lingering concerns over the housing market.
But while U.S. markets were in negative territory Thursday, stocks are likely to end the year on an upbeat note: The S&P 500 index is up 12 percent and the Dow is up 11 percent in a year marked by big corporate profits. The Dow is back to levels last seen in August 2008, prior to the heat of the financial crisis, while the S&P might just eke out the best December in 20 years, if it manages to go back to positive territory.
At midday, the Dow Jones industrial average was off 23.73 points, or 0.2 percent, to 11,561.70. The S&P 500 edged down 2.64, or 0.2 percent, to 1,257.14, while the technology-focused Nasdaq composite index fell 3.98, or 0.2 percent, to 2,662.95.
The week has been thinly traded, and Thursday is effectively being considered the last trading day of note because of the spate of economic data and also because even fewer traders are expected to show up on Friday, the last day of the year.
Despite the strong corporate profits recorded during the year, economists have been worried about the stubbornly high rate of unemployment at 9.8 percent. Thursday's report from the Labor Department should offer some relief.
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell to its lowest point in nearly two and a half years, a sign that the job market is slowly improving. Applications dropped by 34,000 to 388,000, the fewest since July 2008, the Labor Department said Thursday. Unemployment claims generally predict where the job market will go over the next few months.
In further positive news, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December showed that companies in the Midwest were faring better. The index, which surveys business conditions in the states of Illinois, Indiana and Michigan, came in with a reading of 68.6, up from 62.5 in the previous month. Economists had been expecting the index to drop to 61.
Home sales also fared well. The National Association of Realtors said the number of people who signed contracts to buy homes rose in November, the fourth increase since contract signings hit a low in June. Its index of sales agreements for previously occupied homes increased 3.5 percent.
However, with mortgage rates creeping up, investors worried over its effect on home sales. The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages rose this week to 4.86 percent, the highest level in seven months.
U.S. Treasurys are also down slightly, which has led to a slight bump up in yields. The benchmark 10-year bond is yielding 3.39 percent, up from 3.35 at Wednesday's close.
Friday, November 19, 2010
Stocks jump as worries over Ireland ease; GM pops Stocks post big gains as hopes build for a resolution of Ireland's debt woes; GM bounds higher
Stocks jump as worries over Ireland ease; GM pops
Stocks post big gains as hopes build for a resolution of Ireland's debt woes; GM bounds higher
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks bounded higher Thursday thanks to a jump in manufacturing activity and growing confidence that Ireland will resolve its debt crisis.
Most eyes were glued on General Motors, an American icon which re-emerged from bankruptcy in the largest initial public offering in U.S. history. Its shares, trading under the symbol GM, rose 3.6 percent to $34.19. GM's stock amounted to 9.7 percent of all shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange.
Stocks got an early boost from a surprisingly strong reading on manufacturing from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The report said factory orders in the mid-Atlantic region expanded at the fastest rate since December.
"The Philly Fed data shows that the economy had been getting better on its own without the Fed's help," said Michael Strauss, the chief economist for Commonfund, referring to a stimulus plan by the Federal Reserve announced Nov. 3. The Fed is buying up to $600 billion worth of bonds through the spring. The tactic is intended to spur spending by pushing interest rates down.
The manufacturing report helped industrials and materials companies. Aloca Inc. jumped 3.4 percent, making it the biggest gainer among the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones industrial average. General Electric Co. rose 1.5 percent and Caterpillar Inc. rose 2.4 percent. Intel Corp. was the only stock in the Dow to fall.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 173.35, or 1.6 percent, to close at 11,181.23. It was the Dow's first gain in three days. Thanks to a 178-point plunge on Tuesday on worries about Ireland's debt crisis and a slowdown in China, the Dow is still down 0.1 percent for the week.
The broader Standard and Poor's 500 index rose 18.10, or 1.5 percent, to 1,196.69. The technology-focused Nasdaq composite index rose 38.39, or 1.6 percent, to close at 2,514.40.
All ten industry groups within the S&P index rose, with industrial and materials stocks posting the largest gains. Sears Holdings Corp. sank 3.8 percent after reporting that its loss nearly doubled in the third quarter on weak sales. Shares of Delta Air Lines jumped 4.2 percent the same day that its baggage handlers voted to reject forming a union.
Shares jumped in Europe after Ireland moved closer to accepting financial assistance from the European Union. Ireland has nationalized three of its six local banks following a collapse of the country's real estate market.
If it accepts outside help, Ireland will become the second European country to need a bailout this year. Greece came close to fiscal collapse in May and had to be rescued by other European countries and the International Monetary Fund. Fears that Greece's fiscal morass would undermine the euro and lead to bailouts of other European countries brought stock prices down around the world in May and early June.
Ireland is also expected to accept a loan worth tens of billions of euros from Great Britain. While Britain isn't one of the 16 nations that uses the euro, its banks have large holdings of Irish government debt and would face major losses if the country defaulted.
The Euro Stoxx 50 index, which tracks blue chip companies in the euro zone, gained 1.4 percent.
Bond prices fell, pushing their yields higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.90 percent from 2.87 percent late Wednesday. The yield on the note, which is a widely used benchmark for consumer and business loans, traded as low at 2.49 percent on Nov. 4.
The dollar fell 0.6 percent against an index of six currencies.
Five shares rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Consolidated volume was 4.7 billion shares.
How GM's return played in 3 cities with a stake
How GM's return played in 3 cities with a stake
GM stock offering is welcomed on Wall Street, but elsewhere feelings are nuanced
NEW YORK (AP) -- General Motors returned to Wall Street with the satisfying roar of a muscle car's engine, embraced by traders at the New York Stock Exchange who stood in a crowd eight deep for the chance to buy a piece of a resurrected American icon.
Elsewhere, the moment was more complex.
The White House walked a fine line, stressing that the government was eager to get out of the automotive business while also taking credit for a taxpayer bailout that helped save the industry, not to mention tens of thousands of jobs.
And while the day allowed Detroit a moment of pride -- one man spoke of the new GM as if it were a sturdy, righted ship -- many of its residents were quick to point out that the damage caused by the auto industry's collapse had long since been done.
Here is how the day played out in the three American cities most closely tied to the fortunes of General Motors.
NEW YORK
At the New York Stock Exchange, it was clear before the sun even rose that this was no ordinary day. The famous facade, so often covered since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks by an enormous American flag, was decked out in a chrome-colored GM logo.
The stock exchange opens at 9:30 a.m., and by 9:15 the floor post for General Motors -- back under its old symbol, "GM" -- was packed with a crowd almost unseen in these days of electronic trading.
Densely packed traders surrounded a man known as the market-maker whose job is to match buyers and sellers.
At 9:30, the opening bell was followed by the sound effect of the roar of a Chevrolet Camaro. Executives crowded around CEO Dan Akerson and applauded, and cheers normally reserved for a big stock rally went up from the floor.
And then a big stock rally happened. Almost immediately, GM stock shot from $33 per share, the price set by the company ahead of the offering, to nearly $36. The broader stock market joined in the fun, with the Dow Jones industrials soaring nearly 200 points.
As the stock rose, so did spirits on the floor of the exchange.
"What's the last sale?," DME Securities trader Alan Valdez shouted to his assistant staring at a screen a few feet away. "$35.50," came the reply -- apparently not high enough for Valdez.
"I think it's a buy," he said. "Just a year ago the company was in bankruptcy. People thought they'd never sell cars again. So this is huge. What is great for GM is great for the country. It's great for Main Street."
WASHINGTON
For the White House, which has faced relentless attacks from tea party Republicans upset that it owns part of General Motors, the stock offering was a chance to point out to voters that the majority control of the company was only temporary.
At the same time, the Obama administration took credit for rescuing a company "at the heart of America's manufacturing sector" and saving American jobs. GM employs 209,000 people globally, about 115,000 fewer than it did in 2004.
The night before the stock offering, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner called Akerson to thank him and other GM executives for the work they had done putting it together.
And Thursday afternoon President Barack Obama took to the White House briefing room to declare that "an industry that helped to build our middle class is once again on the rise."
"These last two years haven't been easy on anybody," the president said. "They haven't been without pain or sacrifice, as the tough restructuring of GM reminds us."
"We are finally beginning to see some of these tough decisions that we made in the midst of crisis pay off," he said, apparently speaking not just of the GM bailout but of other bailout and stimulus measures adopted during the worst of the economic meltdown.
Obama pointed out that the stock offering had cut the government stake by nearly half, to 33 percent from 61 percent. For the taxpayers to break even on the $50 billion federal bailout of GM, the government needs to sell the rest of its shares at an average of about $53.
DETROIT
In downtown Detroit's main square, within sight of GM's 73-story headquarters, workers were putting the finishing touches on the city's Christmas tree and ice rink. Passers-by expressed indifference about the stock offering.
It may be a moment of pride for Detroit, but the city was hammered by the downfall of the U.S. auto industry in the late 2000s. Michigan's unemployment rate only recently fell beneath 13 percent, compared with a national rate under 10 percent.
"They've already been affected by the plant closings, the layoffs. It's been devastating," said Tim Jenkins, a mortgage banker who lives in the suburb of Grosse Pointe. He said he was too close to retirement to invest in GM stock, which he worried would be volatile for a while.
A half-dozen people watched the trading begin on a small TV in an upstairs, cafeteria-style dining room at Local 652 of the United Auto Workers union in Lansing, which represents workers at a factory for Cadillac, a GM brand.
"That's great news -- the biggest IPO ever," said Mike Green, the local union president, whose family includes four generations of GM workers. "It's good to see her on the ticker tape again, isn't it?"
He said he already had an order in to buy GM stock.
And at GM headquarters in Detroit, several hundred workers cheered and welcomed Akerson at a catered party with a jazz band. It got going about the time the stock market closed -- with GM finishing the day at $34.19, up $1.19 from the offering price.
"Sixteen months ago, we were pretty much flat on our backs," the CEO said, "but we picked ourselves back up and got back in the game. We need to work hard to repay that confidence and trust that has been placed in us."
Krisher reported from Detroit. Also contributing were Associated Press writers Martin Crutsinger, Dee-Ann Durbin, Mike Householder, Tim Martin, Darlene Superville and Corey Williams.
Four in 10 say marriage is becoming obsolete
Four in 10 say marriage is becoming obsolete
WASHINGTON – Is marriage becoming obsolete?
As families gather for Thanksgiving this year, nearly one in three American children is living with a parent who is divorced, separated or never-married. More people are accepting the view that wedding bells aren't needed to have a family.
A study by the Pew Research Center, in association with Time magazine, highlights rapidly changing notions of the American family. And the Census Bureau, too, is planning to incorporate broader definitions of family when measuring poverty, a shift caused partly by recent jumps in unmarried couples living together.
About 29 percent of children under 18 now live with a parent or parents who are unwed or no longer married, a fivefold increase from 1960, according to the Pew report being released Thursday. Broken down further, about 15 percent have parents who are divorced or separated and 14 percent who were never married. Within those two groups, a sizable chunk — 6 percent — have parents who are live-in couples who opted to raise kids together without getting married.
Indeed, about 39 percent of Americans said marriage was becoming obsolete. And that sentiment follows U.S. census data released in September that showed marriages hit an all-time low of 52 percent for adults 18 and over.
In 1978, just 28 percent believed marriage was becoming obsolete.
[Photos: Secret celebrity weddings]
When asked what constitutes a family, the vast majority of Americans agree that a married couple, with or without children, fits that description. But four of five surveyed pointed also to an unmarried, opposite-sex couple with children or a single parent. Three of 5 people said a same-sex couple with children was a family.
"Marriage is still very important in this country, but it doesn't dominate family life like it used to," said Andrew Cherlin, a professor of sociology and public policy at Johns Hopkins University. "Now there are several ways to have a successful family life, and more people accept them."
The broadening views of family are expected to have an impact at Thanksgiving. About nine in 10 Americans say they will share a Thanksgiving meal next week with family, sitting at a table with 12 people on average. About one-fourth of respondents said there will be 20 or more family members.
"More Americans are living in these new families, so it seems safe to assume that there will be more of them around the Thanksgiving dinner table," said Paul Taylor, executive vice president of the Pew Research Center.
The changing views of family are being driven largely by young adults 18-29, who are more likely than older generations to have an unmarried or divorced parent or have friends who do. Young adults also tend to have more liberal attitudes when it comes to spousal roles and living together before marriage, the survey found.
[Related: Sudden celebrity splits]
But economic factors, too, are playing a role. The Census Bureau recently reported that opposite-sex unmarried couples living together jumped 13 percent this year to 7.5 million. It was a sharp one-year increase that analysts largely attributed to people unwilling to make long-term marriage commitments in the face of persistent unemployment.
Beginning next year, the Census Bureau will publish new, supplemental poverty figures that move away from the traditional concept of family as a husband and wife with two children. It will broaden the definition to include unmarried couples, such as same-sex partners, as well as foster children who are not related by blood or adoption.
Officials say such a move will reduce the number of families and children who are considered poor based on the new supplemental measure, which will be used as a guide for federal and state agencies to set anti-poverty policies. That's because two unmarried partners who live together with children and work are currently not counted by census as a single "family" with higher pooled incomes, but are officially defined as two separate units — one being a single parent and child, the other a single person — who aren't sharing household resources.
"People are rethinking what family means," Cherlin said. "Given the growth, I think we need to accept cohabitation relationships as a basis for some of the fringe benefits offered to families, such as health insurance."
Still, the study indicates that marriage isn't going to disappear anytime soon. Despite a growing view that marriage may not be necessary, 67 percent of Americans were upbeat about the future of marriage and family. That's higher than their optimism for the nation's educational system (50 percent), economy (46 percent) or its morals and ethics (41 percent).
And about half of all currently unmarried adults, 46 percent, say they want to get married. Among those unmarried who are living with a partner, the share rises to 64 percent.
Other findings:
_About 34 percent of Americans called the growing variety of family living arrangements good for society, while 32 percent said it didn't make a difference and 29 percent said it was troubling.
_About 44 percent of people say they have lived with a partner without being married; for 30-to-49-year-olds, that share rose to 57 percent. In most cases, those couples said they considered cohabitation as a step toward marriage.
_About 62 percent say that the best marriage is one where the husband and wife both work and both take care of the household and children. That's up from 48 percent who held that view in 1977.
The Pew study was based on interviews with 2,691 adults by cell phone or landline from Oct. 1-21. The survey has a total margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points, larger for subgroups. Pew also analyzed 2008 census data, and used surveys conducted by Time magazine to identify trends from earlier decades.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Economy recovering, but recession's shadow is long
Economy recovering, but recession's shadow is long
The economy may be recovering, but Americans are still guarding their wallets
NEW YORK (AP) -- Layaway, once the province of the poor, has gone mainstream. At the Mall of America in Minnesota, shoppers dart in for just one or two things. In New York, socialites do the unthinkable: They wear the same ball gown twice.
During the Great Recession, people made drastic changes in how they spent their money. They stopped treating credit cards as cash. They learned to save and learned to wait.
Now the recession is over, at least technically, and the economy is growing again, at least a little. But many changes in spending habits that most Americans first saw as temporary have taken hold, perhaps for good, some economists say.
This is the reality of the new American consumer -- focused, cautious and tactical.
EDITOR'S NOTE -- The Great Recession has been over for nearly a year and a half, and the economy is slowly growing again. But many of the drastic changes that Americans made in how they spend money have endured -- and may be here to stay, some economists think. In a three-part series, The Associated Press examines the state of the American consumer.
In Jacksonville, Fla., Bernie Decelles and his wife both have jobs and own their home. They recognize that the economy is still fragile, though, and that they work in industries still struggling. They scrutinize every purchase they make.
"It used to be if we saw something, and liked it, we bought it," says Decelles, a salesman for a company that makes storage equipment. "Nowadays, no way."
In dozens of interviews nationwide with shoppers, retailers, manufacturers, economists and analysts, The Associated Press identified key changes in consumer behavior that have endured after the recession. They include:
-- Americans are buying brands and shopping at stores that they shunned before. They are trying more store-brand products for things like detergent and beer. Goodwill and consignment shops are attracting customers across the income spectrum. And people are putting big-ticket items on layaway rather than whipping out charge cards.
-- Consumers are taking a surgical approach to shopping, buying only what they need, when they need it. Pantries are no longer filled with weeks' worth of food, nor closets with clothes bought seasons in advance. Shoppers are visiting fewer stores, both traditional and online, and getting only what's on their shopping list.
-- The wealthy are spending again, but their behavior is much like everyone else. They are buying more timeless and classic goods: watches and handbags that won't go out of style quickly. They are even -- gasp! -- recycling some of their most expensive clothes and wearing them twice.
These behavioral shifts aren't at the extremes of the Great Depression, which produced changes so drastic that many who lived through it adopted frugality as a lifelong habit.
Still, some experts say the changes from the recession of 2007, 2008 and 2009 could last.
"This was a massive cultural event for our society," says John Gerzema, a branding executive at marketing and advertising firm Young & Rubicam and co-author of a new book about the changing ways we spend money. "Eighty percent of Americans were born after World War II, so essentially this is our Depression."
The impact is hard to overstate. Consumer spending represents 70 percent of economic activity. Every business feels the pullback in some way, and it's more pronounced for those that sell things directly to people.
The new patterns of spending represent a radical turn from the boom years of the last decade. Americans up and down the income ladder piled on credit-card debt and used their homes as ATMs by taking out home-equity loans to pay for third cars, clothes and far-flung vacations.
During that time, the savings rate plunged to nearly zero. Americans accumulated debts that far exceeded their incomes. Household debt, including obligations for mortgages and credit cards, rose to about 140 percent of disposable income, double what it was before the boom years.
Credit was easy, and money seemed readily available. Until it wasn't.
"We saw a period of consumption that was unusual and unstable," says Jarrett Paschel, vice president of strategy and innovation at The Hartman Group, a consumer research firm in Bellevue, Wash.
A plunge in housing prices set off the economy's slump. Most Americans were left financially stressed in some way. Millions of people abandoned all but the necessities; for some, the necessities became luxuries.
The worst recession since the Depression ended in June 2009, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of academic economists that officially declares the starts and ends of recessions.
Americans' psyche hasn't recovered. An index of consumer confidence from The Conference Board has been in a tight range from the high 40s to high 50s. A reading of 90 indicates a healthy economy, and that level has not been seen since December 2007, the month the recession began.
U.S. households lost 17 percent of their wealth over in the past three years, more than $10 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve. The labor market remains in shambles, with nearly one in 10 Americans unemployed. One in six Americans now receives some form of government assistance, including food stamps and extended jobless benefits.
You may not see soup lines, but only because "the soup lines are in the mail," says David Rosenberg, chief economist and investment strategist at the Toronto-based money management firm Gluskin Sheff.
This stressful economic climate isn't just affecting Americans who are struggling to get by. Those who are more fortunate also have a new approach to spending.
Before the financial meltdown, philanthropist and socialite Allison Weiss Brady didn't think twice about dropping $20,000 each season on posh accessories. One prized possession she bought at the height of the boom? A $4,950 Fendi lizard handbag.
Brady still springs for luxury labels like Chanel, but she's snubbing the "it" handbags in favor of clothes and accessories that have staying power beyond a season.
She won't buy a new dress for every occasion, and will be wearing a Lanvin gown bought for a charity event last year to a few parties this year. And for the first time, she bought a peach-colored Chanel bag at a second-hand store, saving $2,000.
"I do think my mentality is more need-based now," says Brady, who lives in Florida and is a vice president of marketing for Florida Dental Benefits, a dental insurance company. "Am I going to show up with a new pair of diamond earrings every times I go to a ball? That's not happening." Brady is also buying more items at charity auctions -- not only to save but to give to others.
Tempered spending by Americans of most income levels means the economic recovery is having a harder time gaining steam. Rosenberg says that at this point of the economic cycle -- two years and 11 months since the recession began -- things should be much better.
Retail sales are off by 2.6 percent since the recession began in December 2007. That's a stark contrast to the last 60 years. At this stage in an economic recovery, retail sales on average were up 25 percent, according to Gluskin Sheff. Retail sales include food, autos, clothing, furniture and electronics.
Decelles, of Jacksonville, acknowledges his spending was more careless a few years back. Saving was barely on the radar. Now he eats out far less, doesn't entertain much and spends little time shopping.
"Things certainly feel a lot different now," he says, "than they did back then."
PARAMUS, N.J. (AP) -- The Goodwill store in this middle-class New York suburb is buzzing on a recent weekend afternoon. A steady flow of shoppers comb
Asian stock markets mixed despite jump in US jobs
Asian stock markets mixed after US musters only tiny gains despite strong jobs report
TOKYO (AP) -- Asian stock markets were mixed Monday as investors took a pause after last week's big gains with losses tempered by a surprise jump in U.S. employment.
Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average was up 96.67 points, or 1 percent, at 9,722.66 while South Korea's Kospi was off 0.4 percent at 1,931.34.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed less than 0.1 percent to 24,870.30 and China's Shanghai Composite Index added 0.4 percent to 3,141.38. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.3 percent to 4,786.10.
Elsewhere, markets in Singapore and Indonesia rose while Taiwan's benchmark fell.
Global stocks and commodities rallied last week after the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced it would sink $600 billion into buying Treasurys over the next eight months to stimulate the sluggish economy by lowering long-term interest rates.
But the rally ran out steam by Friday in the U.S. with shares in New York squeezing out only narrow gains despite a surprisingly positive jobs report.
The Labor Department said employers added 151,000 jobs in October, the first gain since May and far more than analysts had anticipated.
Even with the surge, the U.S. national employment rate remained at 9.6 percent for the third straight month, and shares ended barely higher.
The Dow closed up 9.24, or 0.1 percent, at 11,444.08. The broader Standard & Poor's 500 index edged up 4.79, or 0.4 percent, to 1,225.85, and the Nasdaq composite index edged up 1.64, or 0.1 percent, to 2,578.98.
In currencies, the dollar fell to 81.16 yen Monday from 81.25 yen in New York late Friday. The euro fell to $1.3961 from $1.4031.
Benchmark oil for December delivery was up 3 cents at $86.88 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 36 cents to settle at $86.85 on Friday.
(This version CORRECTS Corrects oil settle price in last paragraph to $86.85.)
Investors looking for safer places to stow their assets pushed gold to a record price above $1,400 an ounce Monday as they become more worried about t
In a tough economy, old stigmas fall away
In a bad economy, old stigmas no longer apply; Americans less shy about layaway and off-brands
PARAMUS, N.J. (AP) -- The Goodwill store in this middle-class New York suburb is buzzing on a recent weekend afternoon. A steady flow of shoppers comb through racks filled with second-hand clothes, shoes, blankets and dishes.
A few years ago, opening a Goodwill store here wouldn't have made sense. Paramus is one of the biggest ZIP codes in the country for retail sales. Shoppers have their pick of hundreds of respected names like Macy's and Lord &Taylor along this busy highway strip.
But in the wake of the Great Recession, the stigma attached to certain consumer behavior has fallen away. What some people once thought of as lowbrow, they now accept -- even consider a frugal badge of honor.
EDITOR'S NOTE -- The Great Recession has been over for nearly a year and a half, and the economy is slowly growing again. But many of the drastic changes that Americans made in how they spend money have endured -- and may be here to stay, some economists think. In a three-part series, The Associated Press examines the state of the American consumer.
And it's not just about Goodwill. Americans, even those with jobs, are shopping for brands, buying at stores and eating at restaurants that they shunned before because they are trying to get more for their money.
At the supermarket, shoppers are buying more store-labeled products, like no-name detergents and cereal, and not returning to national brands.
And in a telling trend, Americans are turning to layaway more often when they buy expensive items such as engagement rings and iPads. The wealthy are also using layaway more often, a drastic change from the past.
"The old stigmas are the new realities," says Emanuel Weintraub, a New York-based retail consultant. "Now, people don't have a problem saying, 'I can't afford it.' It's a sign of strength."
At the Goodwill in Paramus, even financially secure shoppers are showing up. One is Heather Dzielinski, from nearby Ramsey, N.J., who had donated things to Goodwill but never shopped at one of its stores until the Paramus location opened in July.
A pair of L.L. Bean fur-lined slippers for $8, far below the $50 retail price, got her hooked. She thought a Goodwill store would be dark and dingy, but it wasn't.
"This store is a lot different than what I thought it would be, and that impressed me," Dzielinski said during a recent visit. She picked up two shirts for her son costing about $4 each.
Thrift and consignment stores are thriving, so much so that some high-end retail stores are carving out space for second-hand goods as a way to offset weak sales of their full-price merchandise.
This behavioral shift is pronounced at the nation's supermarkets. Store-branded groceries now make up 22 percent of total sales, up from 20 percent before the recession, according to The Nielsen Co. The private-label business is worth $500 billion a year, so even a 2 percentage point change means $10 billion.
Improved quality has helped drive the growth, but price also plays a big role. Supermarkets that stock almost all store-brands are thriving. One is Aldi, a chain of more than 1,000 stores in the Midwest and on the East Coast.
At an Aldi location in Chicago on a recent evening, shoppers didn't care that the only recognizable brands were the Splenda sweetener, a Butterball turkey and a few kinds of candy.
Six no-name grocery items -- macaroni and cheese, potato chips, cream cheese, sour cream, olive oil and guacamole -- cost about $10. The same six brand-name items cost $22 at the nearby Dominick's.
"I started realizing that I could save $20 shopping here for my groceries, and I liked the products," says Aline Silberg, a mother of two who works as a massage therapist and started coming to Aldi during the recession. "I stopped caring that they weren't brands I knew."
People are learning to live with trading down on clothes, too. Jaime Palmer of Dallas used to go to Neiman Marcus and spend as much as $300 on dress shirts by such high-end designers as Hugo Boss and Thomas Pink.
Now, Palmer, a 36-year-old a managing partner at an investment boutique, buys from a new label called J. Hilburn, which customizes dress shirts for a much lower price -- $120. As for his suits, he's turning to outlets.
"You don't get the service. They don't bring you coffee," he concedes. "It did have a bit of a stigma for me." But living through the Great Recession has made him reassess how he shops, he says.
"All of a sudden you feel mortal," he says. And even though business has stabilized and Palmer's own personal portfolio has rebounded, "my spending patterns will probably be a lot more conservative for the rest of my life."
The search for value is also helping sales at fast-food restaurants like McDonald's. Driving some of the sales gains are wealthy Americans who are eating at such establishments more often than before the recession.
New research from American Express found that the super-affluent, which it defines as those who put at least $7,000 a month on their credit cards, spent 24 percent more on fast-food last spring than the year before. They spent 12 percent more on fine dining.
Back in Paramus, the packed racks at Goodwill are sorted by style and color, much like a department store. Black pants all hang together. Sets of dishes are displayed on a large rack. The merchandise contains some recognizable names -- Ann Taylor, Gap, Ralph Lauren, Lilly Pulitzer. Women's shirts sell for $5.29, half that if they're the color of the week.
The Paramus store is one of 100 new locations for the nonprofit Goodwill. Many are in middle-class suburbs. The strategy: Attract not only people in need, but also the many Americans who are looking for more value when they shop. Revenue this year is up 11 percent.
"We're increasingly seeing our shoppers and donors can be the same people," says Jim Gibbons, who is CEO of Goodwill Industries International, based in Rockville, Md.
A similar scenario plays out on Manhattan's Upper East Side, where wealthy women who tend to frequent high-end boutiques are increasingly showing up at consignment shops looking for designer brands like Chanel and Gucci for less.
To fight back, some retailers are adding consignment to their stores. In the tony Boston suburb of Winchester, Mass., upscale clothing merchant T. Michaels began offering consignment a few months ago as a way to make up for weak sales. Locals drop off high-end clothes in pristine shape -- some even have the tags still attached. When the shop sells them, the two split the profit.
Two years ago, having second-hand clothes in the same store that sells regular-priced goods might have driven well-heeled shoppers away. Today, the concept works. The new consignment area, called My Secret Closet, has brought in new customers. Shoppers browse both the retail and consignment areas without hesitation.
"We are seeing a permanent change in how people shop, and we have to respond to that," says Tom Patrolia, who has owned the store for 24 years.
The growth in layaway also reflects Americans' new willingness to set aside old shopping stigmas. Layaway, which lets shoppers pay over time while the store holds the item, had its roots in the Great Depression. It became passe in the past two decades with the rise of credit cards.
Toys R Us expanded its layaway program this year after seeing strong demand last holiday season. Two years ago, it didn't exist. Now customers are using it to pay for outdoor gym sets, bicycles and baby-related goods such as cribs and changing tables.
At online site eLayaway.com, the average price of goods on layaway now runs around $460. Expensive items like the latest gadgets and expensive tickets to sporting events are becoming more common, as the website attracts higher-income consumers. More than 40 percent of its customers have income above $60,000. Before the recession, it was just 8 percent, says founder and chief marketing officer Sergio Pinon.
Shoppers at Davis Jewelers in Louisville, Ky., used to be embarrassed when the sales help would suggest layaway for engagement rings, which start at $3,000, says saleswoman Erica Samelson. Now more shoppers are asking to pay through layaway because they can't rack up big balances on their credit cards or get bank loans.
"For the first time, I am hearing lots of people bringing it up," she says.
D'Innocenzio reported from New York.
Gold sets record high amid economic fears
Gold sets record high amid economic fears
Gold sets record above $1,400 an ounce; investors seek safety net amid global economic worries
Investors looking for safer places to stow their assets pushed gold to a record price above $1,400 an ounce Monday as they become more worried about the global economy.
A combination of issues have created fresh worry among investors: Ireland's debt difficulties and two key global summits where leaders of major industrial and developing nations are discussing currencies, free trade and ways to help the world economy.
Also in the back of investors' minds is the prospect of inflation stemming the Federal Reserve's multi-billion bond-buying program.
"People are really concerned again and so I think we're seeing safe-haven buying," IG Markets Inc. CEO Dan Cook said.
"Whether you're holding dollars or euros or whatever you're holding, gold is that one kind of go-to product, a commodity as well as a currency type of trade," he said. "Nobody seems to be that willing to sell out of it."
Gold for December delivery added $5.50 to settle at a record high of $1,403.20 an ounce. Some analysts believe gold could go climb as high as $1,500 an ounce by year end.
In other metals contracts for December, silver added 68.4 cents to settle at $27.432 an ounce; copper gained 0.8 cent to $3.9565 pound and palladium rose $25.50 to $710.90 an ounce. January platinum rose $2.20 to settle at $1,771.10 an ounce.
Oil prices settled at a high for the year while most of the other energy contracts also rose.
Benchmark oil for December delivery settled up 21 cents at $87.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Analysts think oil prices could climb to $90 a barrel by the end of the year.
In other December energy contracts on the Nymex, heating oil added 1.29 cents to settle at $2.3977 a gallon, gasoline slipped 0.15 cent to $2.1785 per gallon while natural gas gained 15.1 cents to $4.088 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Grains and beans were mixed ahead of Tuesday's U.S. Agriculture Department report updating global supply and demand estimates of major crops.
December wheat added 7.5 cents to settle $7.3625 a bushel, December corn gained 11.5 cents to $5.9925 a bushel and January soybeans lost 9.25 cents to $12.7475 a bushel.
US issues new security rules for air cargo
US issues new security rules for air cargo
US issues new security rules for air cargo, curbs shipments of large toner and ink cartridges
WASHINGTON (AP) -- New U.S. security rules are in place banning all cargo from Yemen and Somalia and prohibiting toner and ink cartridges weighing more than one pound from passenger flights, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said Monday.
The new rules are a direct response to the thwarted terror plot that could have taken down two cargo planes over the U.S. last month. Terrorists in Yemen had hidden two powerful bombs inside printers and shipped them to addresses in Chicago.
As the packages made their way to the U.S., Saudi Arabia tipped off intelligence officials to the plot, providing the FedEx and UPS tracking numbers that allowed officials to pinpoint where the packages were en route.
"The threats of terrorism we face are serious and evolving, and these security measures reflect our commitment to using current intelligence to stay ahead of adversaries," Napolitano said in a statement.
The U.S. immediately banned cargo from Yemen after the bombs were intercepted. Other countries including England and Germany -- which the bombs traveled through -- followed suit.
Somalia was added to the U.S. ban, despite a lack of intelligence pointing to a similar plot to detonate bombs on cargo planes, said a senior administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly. The official said the terrorist group in Somalia, al-Shabaab, has said it intends to attack the U.S., just as al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula has stated and tried to do.
Britain is also banning all cargo from Somalia as well as large printer cartridges transported by air.
Besides the bans, high risk cargo will no longer be allowed to fly on passenger planes, Napolitano said, without elaborating what constitutes high risk. Until now, the U.S. has required that high risk cargo be screened before it's loaded onto U.S.-bound passenger planes. Some printer ink and toner cartridges weighing more than a pound shipped internationally will also be banned from flying to the U.S., but Napolitano and the senior administration official did not say which toner and ink shipments would be banned. The senior administration official instead pointed to the ban on all cargo from Somalia and Yemen. The new rules also include extra screening for all high risk cargo, which could include physically opening a package and inspecting it, explosive detection and X-rays, the official said. How a high risk package is screened will be left up to the company or the country, he said.
About 30 percent of air cargo shipped to the U.S. is shipped on passenger planes, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
Analysts warn that the cost of screening every piece of air cargo in a bid to prevent terrorists from downing airliners might bankrupt international shipping companies, hobble already weakened airlines and still not provide full protection.
On Monday, European Union interior ministers established a panel to review a proposed plan to tighten air cargo security that would include blacklisting high-risk airports that are deemed to have inadequate security measures.
Fed official raises doubts over bond-purchase plan
Fed official raises doubts over bond-purchase plan
Fed official with ties to Bernanke raises doubts over $600 billion bond-purchase plan
WASHINGTON (AP) -- A Federal Reserve official with close ties to Chairman Ben Bernanke expressed doubts Monday about whether the Fed's new $600 billion bond-purchase program would succeed in boosting the economy.
Kevin Warsh, a Fed governor, also warned of "significant risks" associated with the program, including the potential for triggering excessive inflation later on.
The Fed's program, announced last week, is intended to push interest rates on loans even lower than they are now. The Fed hopes cheaper loans will spur Americans to borrow and spend more. A stronger economy could, in turn, prompt companies to hire more and invigorate the economy.
But Warsh said he doubted the program will have "significant" or "durable benefits" for the economy. He made the comments in a speech to the annual meeting of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association in New York.
Despite his reservations, Warsh was among 10 Fed officials who voted for the $600 billion program. The sole dissent came from Thomas Hoenig, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kanas City.
Warsh's comments point to the uneasiness about the risks the central bank is taking with the new program -- even among some Fed officials who supported it. Warsh, a Bernanke lieutenant, has never dissented from a Fed vote.
Warsh warned that the Fed might have to reconsider its program if the dollar continues to fall or if commodity prices continue to rise, raising inflation across the economy.
The Fed last week said it will monitor the effect of the bond-buying program on the economy. It left the door open to scaling back the purchases if the economy grows more than expected or if high inflation becomes too much of a threat. On the other hand, the Fed indicated it would boost its purchases if economic conditions weakened.
"The Federal Reserve is not a repair shop for broken fiscal, trade or regulatory policies," Warsh said. "Given what ails us, additional monetary policy measures are, at best, poor substitutes for more powerful pro-growth policies."
Warsh suggested that Congress reform the tax code to provide more incentives for businesses to step up investment. He indicated that such an approach is a more effective way to strengthen the economy.
Taking a different stance, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, argued in a speech Monday in New York that the "benefits outweigh the risks." He also voted for the $600 billion program last week.
Bullard said he worries that the weak economy might lead to deflation -- a destructive drop in the prices of goods and services, wages and in the values of homes and stocks. The Fed's bond-buying program should help prevent any deflationary forces from taking hold, he said. Bullard did acknowledge that the program risks spurring too-high inflation.
With the Fed's efforts to stimulate growth, its balance sheet now stands at $2.3 trillion. That's nearly triple its amount before the recession. Adding the new bond holdings will push it to nearly $3 trillion.
Hoenig and Warsh say they worry that the vast sums the Fed is pumping into the economy could unleash inflation. Bernanke, though, has argued that such fears are overblown. He says he's confident the Fed can soak up all the money once the economy is on firmer footing -- before inflation gets out of control.
During the 2008 financial crisis, Warsh worked with Bernanke to craft programs to get credit -- the economy's oxygen -- to flow again. Banks had essentially stopped lending to each other and to their customers, helping plunge the economy deeper into recession.
Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, who took part in the Fed's discussions last week but isn't a voting member, called the $600 billion program "wrong medicine" for what ails the economy. Fisher, who made his comments in a speech in San Antonio, said he worries that the Fed looks as though it's printing money to pay for the federal government's debt.
And he frets that the plan could lead to new bubbles in the prices of commodities, stocks and other assets.
"Financial speculation and excess ... is beginning to raise its hoary head," he said.
