Thursday, December 19, 2013

Top foreign travelers to US


The United States travel and tourism industry is one of the fastest growing sectors and doesn't seem to be slowing down.
The travel and tourism sector grew at an annualized rate of 2.5 percent in the third quarter of 2013. Not only is the industry growing along with the economy, it's doing so despite a slowing growth in prices.
Direct travel spending in the US by domestic and international travelers grew 5.3 percent to $855.4 billion last year. Of this total, $128.6 billion was spent by international travelers visiting the United States.
During 2012, 66.97 million foreign travelers came to the United States. Of these, 59.5 million or 89 percent came from 20 foreign countries. 

Travel visits 2012

CountryArrival
Canada22,698,986
Mexico14,509,341
UK3,763,381
Japan3,698,073
Germany1,895,952
Brazil1,791,103
China1,474,408
France1,455,720
South Korea1,455,720
Australia1,122,180

Bad News For Ford, Bad News for the Auto Industry


Shares of Ford have continued to plunge today following yesterday’s gloomy earnings guidance, and are now down 8% this week.Toyota Motor (TM) has declined just 0.6% this week, while General Motors (GM) has ticked up 0.3%  and Honda Motor (HMC) has advanced 1.1%.
Don’t expect them to continue to stay afloat, as Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas and team warn that the causes of Ford’s disappointment are industry-wide. They write:
The biggest source of disappointment was Ford’s guide on their N. American volume which is expected to decline despite a market up 5%, $3 gas, cheap money and easy credit. This should send a chill to OEM competitors, suppliers and dealers alike. The auto cycle may be in even later innings than we realize.
We think the culprit is pricing/competition – not just from the Japanese – but from everybody. The market is clearly moving from a ‘need to replace’ to a ‘can’t afford to pass up a great deal’ consumer mindset. Competition in the small to mid-size super-segment is particularly high. Ford takes the admirable, but painful, decision to sacrifice volume. The sources of the warning are mostly NOT Ford specific. We see a material read-across to peers. [General Motors] may want to send Ford a Christmas card for getting investor expectations to include some of the market pressures outside of its control. Ford may make more money in small cars, but [General Motors] swims in the same waters.
And that seems to have been the conclusion in the market today, as the major automakers see their stock prices decline. Shares of Ford have dropped  2.4% to $15.27 at 1:50 p.m., General Motors has fallen 2.8% to $40.13, Toyota Motor has declined 2.1% to $118.54 and Honda Motor is off 1.6% at $40.78.

U.S. housing, jobs data weaken, but overall economic picture still upbeat


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home resales hit a near one-year low in November and new filings for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, putting a wrinkle in an otherwise brightening economic picture.
The reports on Thursday came a day after the Federal Reserve gave the economy a vote of confidence by announcing that it would reduce its monthly $85 billion bond buying program by $10 billion starting in January.
"Things have not changed. It's still a marginally rosier outlook in the short-term," said Jacob Oubina, senior U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York.
The National Association of Realtors said sales of previously owned homes fell 4.3 percent last month to an annual rate of 4.90 million units. That was the lowest since December last year and the third straight monthly drop.
A rise in interest rates since the spring and fast-rising home prices have shut some potential buyers out of the market, dampening home sales in recent months.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected home resales to fall only to a 5.03 million-unit pace in November.
Housing market fundamentals, however, remain solid. Household formation is rising steadily from multi-decade lows, which in turn is keeping demand for housing supported and encouraging builders to undertake new projects.
Median home prices increased 9.4 percent from a year-ago and the share of distressed properties - foreclosed and short sales - declined over the same period.
The inventory of previously owned homes on the market slipped 0.9 percent to 2.09 million units, representing a 5.1 months supply at November's sales pace. That compared to 4.9 months' worth in October.
A 6.0 months' supply is normally considered healthy.
"We are starting to reach a point where we are seeing a shift from a speculative investor driven recovery to one that is going to be more represented by the traditional buyers and sellers that make housing decisions based on lifestyle," said Budge Huskey, chief executive officer at Coldwell Banker Real Estate in Madison, New Jersey.
Stocks on Wall Street were little changed after rallying the prior session. U.S. Treasury debt prices fell, while the dollar rose against a basket of currencies.
SEASONAL VOLATILITY
In a separate report, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 10,000 last week to 379,000, the highest level since March.
But other labor market indicators have pointed to a strengthening in job growth, and economists discounted the data, which covered the period for the government's December nonfarm payrolls survey.
"The rise was likely due to year-end holiday seasonal layoffs, which the government struggles to adjust properly at this time of year," said Mei Li, an economist at FTN Financial in New York.
"Nevertheless, claims will have to be watched closely in coming weeks. If the rise does not quickly reverse it will be a sign there is more going on."
A third report showing factory activity in the U.S. mid-Atlantic picked up last month offered an upbeat signal on labor market conditions. The rise in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's business activity index was driven by gains in employment measures and new orders.

China faced most scrutiny in 2012 over investments in U.S


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Chinese companies faced the most scrutiny over their U.S. acquisitions last year, eclipsing British firms for the first time, according to a report issued on Thursday.
Chinese corporations filed 23 notices with U.S. regulators in 2012, up from 10 in 2011 and nearly quadruple the number in 2010, according to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, or CFIUS.
This compared with 17 notices from companies from the United Kingdom last year, the report said.
CFIUS, an interagency group chaired by the Treasury Secretary, reviews transactions that would bring U.S. businesses under foreign ownership for national security concerns. Most of its reviews stay secret unless companies choose to disclose them, but once a year the group must file a report to Congress about general trends.
Speaking about the latest report, a senior Treasury official said the higher number of Chinese deals under review was consistent with growing Chinese investment in the United States.
There was $11.5 billion worth of deals by Chinese companies in the United States in 2012, which was a significantly higher figure than in any year other than 2007, according to Thomson Reuters data.
U.S. politicians are eager to attract Chinese investment as a source of new jobs and economic growth. And Chinese companies have also become more comfortable with U.S. deals, despite the 2005 rejection of China National Offshore Oil Corp's $18.5 billion attempt to buy U.S. energy company Unocal. CNOOC's bid was thwarted by fierce political opposition because of national security concerns.
CFIUS also recommended that U.S. President Barack Obama block a Chinese firm's acquisition of wind farms close to a U.S. naval training site.
But CFIUS cleared Chinese plans this year to buy Smithfield Foods, the world's largest pork producer, despite concerns among some U.S. lawmakers about food safety.
In its report, CFIUS also said it no longer sees that some foreign governments have a coordinated strategy to acquire valuable U.S. technology by buying U.S. firms, as it saw for 2011.
(Reporting by Anna Yukhananov; Editing by Eric Walsh)

Gold eyes worst week in three months on taper sell-off


SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Gold languished at a six-month low on Friday and was on the edge of tipping over to a 3-1/2 year trough after the Federal Reserve's move to cut back its bond-buying stimulus prompted a huge sell-off.
The metal is heading for its worst weekly performance in three months and its biggest annual loss in 32 years.
FUNDAMENTALS
* Spot gold had gained 0.2 percent to $1,191.91 an ounce by 0016 GMT, after earlier hitting its lowest since June at $1,185.10. Gold touched $1,180.71 in late June - its weakest since 2010.
* On Wednesday, the day of the Fed announcement of a $10 billion cut in its monthly bond purchases, gold fell 1 percent. But the selling picked up on Thursday, with the metal losing 2 percent.
* It has lost nearly 4 percent for the week, and 29 percent for the year.
* The Fed's $85 billion in monthly bond purchases, along with other monetary stimulus measures, had fuelled a big run-up in gold prices in the last few years, with the metal hitting an all-time high of $1,920.30 in 2011.
* However, with an improving economy and stubborn low-inflation in the United States, gold's appeal has dropped off.
* SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 3.90 tonnes to 808.72 tonnes on Thursday.
* Russian precious metals and gems repository Gokhran may consider buying palladium on the market to increase its stocks, its new head Andrey Yurin said, signalling a possible change in strategy.

Devyani Khobragade arrest: US must apologise, accept fault, says Kamal Nath


New Delhi, Dec 19 (ANI): Union Minister Kamal Nath on Thursday said the United States must apologise for arresting diplomat Devyani Khobragade.
"America must apologise and accept their fault. Only then, will we be satisfied," Nath told reporters here.
On Wednesday, US Secretary of State John Kerry spoke to National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon and expressed 'regret' over the incident.
In telephone call to Menon, Kerry expressed also hope that this isolated episode would not harm the close and mutually respectful ties between the two countries.
Earlier, New Delhi strongly contested the allegations levelled against Khobragade and protested against her arrest and strip search by U.S. Marshals.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh termed the arrest and ill treatment meted out to Khobragade as deplorable, and hoped that the United States would understand India's loud and clear message on the issue.
External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid told Parliament that the government fully stands by Khobragade and will bring her back and restore her dignity.
The Indian Government had, on Tuesday, announced several steps to strip American diplomats and their families of privileges, including withdrawing all airport passes and stopping import clearances for the U.S. Embassy.
The U.S. was also asked to provide a list of all Indian nationals working with its Consulates, including domestic servants, by December 23. Security barricades outside the embassy consulates and other institutions under the jurisdiction of the embassy was also removed.
Khurshid maintained that Khobragade was a victim of a conspiracy created by her maid servant Sarah Richards, who has been absconding.
Despite all efforts by New Delhi, police in New York has not been able to trace Richards till now, and Khurshid suspected that the maid was set up by conspirators under a definite plan to humiliate the diplomat.
He said the immediate concern of the government is that no further indignity is meted out to Khobragade.
The government, he said, is following all legal procedures to deal with the situation. Referring to the anger and anguish expressed by the members, Khurshid assured them that the government would not let them down.
He said the adverse U.S. action would be repulsed in the strongest possible manner.
Khurshid said the paramount concern of the government is to intervene effectively and strongly to protect Khobragade's dignity and honour.
He also assured the House that the diplomat will be brought back to India with all respect and every action would be taken to restore her dignity and modesty.
Earlier this week, political leaders cut across party lines to refuse to meet a U.S. Congress delegation till the diplomatic row is resolved.
Senior leaders like Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar, Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde, Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi and BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi have refused to meet the U.S. Congress delegation.
National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon cancelled meetings in Delhi with the delegation. Menon has described Khobragade's treatment as "despicable and barbaric."
Devyani's father, Uttam Khobragade, a former IAS officer, said: "My daughter is brave, but I am worried. There is more than what meets the eye. She has not done anything wrong."
Devyani Khobragade, 39, was arrested on Thursday. She has been accused of lying on the visa application for an Indian national who worked at her home from November 2012 to June 2013 for less than four dollars an hour. (ANI)

Total Volume of Saturn Moon Titan's Otherworldly Seas Calculated


The lakes and seas on Saturn's largest moon Titan hold massive amounts of liquid hydrocarbons — 40 times more than are found in Earth's proven oil reserves, new observations by NASA's Cassini spacecraft suggest.
Titan, which is about 1.5 times bigger than Earth's moon, harbors about 2,000 cubic miles (9,000 cubic kilometers) of liquid methane and ethane on its frigid surface, researchers announced last week. The hydrocarbons are almost all contained in an area near Titan's north pole that's just 660,000 square miles (1.62 million kilometers) in size, a region slightly larger than Alaska.
The find indicates there is something favorable in the geology that restricts most liquid to Titan's northern hemisphere, researchers said. The prime suspect is regional extension of the moon's crust, a process that on Earth created fault lines with depressions and mountain ranges parallel to each other. [Tour Titan's Hydrocarbon Seas (Video)]
"We think it may be something like the formation of the prehistoric lake called Lake Lahontan near Lake Tahoe in Nevada and California, where deformation of the crust created fissures that could be filled up with liquid," Randolph Kirk, a Cassini radar team member at the U.S. Geological Survey in Flagstaff, Ariz., said in a statement issued by NASA last week.
Titan is often pegged as a prime location to understand more about Earth, especially because it is the only solar system body other than our planet known to have stable liquid on its surface. Titan is also large — it's bigger than Mercury — and has active weather, including possible cyclones.
Newly released radar data from Cassini also measured the depth of Ligeia Mare, a first for any lake or sea on Titan. Ligeia, Titan's second-largest sea, is made up of methane, scientists said, and is about 560 feet (170 meters) deep, making at least part of it deeper than the average found in Lake Michigan.
"This was possible partly because the liquid turned out to be very pure, allowing the radar signal to pass through it easily. The liquid surface may be as smooth as the paint on our cars, and it is very clear to radar eyes," NASA officials wrote in a press release about the discovery.
NASA also released a new photomosaic of Cassini images showing the bodies of liquid hydrocarbon in Titan's northern hemisphere.
The $3.2 billion Cassini mission launched in 1997 and has been orbiting Saturn since 2004. In recent months, scientists noted several changes as summer approaches in the northern hemisphere of Titan, such as a surprising rise in the moon's atmosphere.

Total Volume of Saturn Moon Titan's Otherworldly Seas Calculated


The lakes and seas on Saturn's largest moon Titan hold massive amounts of liquid hydrocarbons — 40 times more than are found in Earth's proven oil reserves, new observations by NASA's Cassini spacecraft suggest.
Titan, which is about 1.5 times bigger than Earth's moon, harbors about 2,000 cubic miles (9,000 cubic kilometers) of liquid methane and ethane on its frigid surface, researchers announced last week. The hydrocarbons are almost all contained in an area near Titan's north pole that's just 660,000 square miles (1.62 million kilometers) in size, a region slightly larger than Alaska.
The find indicates there is something favorable in the geology that restricts most liquid to Titan's northern hemisphere, researchers said. The prime suspect is regional extension of the moon's crust, a process that on Earth created fault lines with depressions and mountain ranges parallel to each other. [Tour Titan's Hydrocarbon Seas (Video)]
"We think it may be something like the formation of the prehistoric lake called Lake Lahontan near Lake Tahoe in Nevada and California, where deformation of the crust created fissures that could be filled up with liquid," Randolph Kirk, a Cassini radar team member at the U.S. Geological Survey in Flagstaff, Ariz., said in a statement issued by NASA last week.
Titan is often pegged as a prime location to understand more about Earth, especially because it is the only solar system body other than our planet known to have stable liquid on its surface. Titan is also large — it's bigger than Mercury — and has active weather, including possible cyclones.
Newly released radar data from Cassini also measured the depth of Ligeia Mare, a first for any lake or sea on Titan. Ligeia, Titan's second-largest sea, is made up of methane, scientists said, and is about 560 feet (170 meters) deep, making at least part of it deeper than the average found in Lake Michigan.
"This was possible partly because the liquid turned out to be very pure, allowing the radar signal to pass through it easily. The liquid surface may be as smooth as the paint on our cars, and it is very clear to radar eyes," NASA officials wrote in a press release about the discovery.
NASA also released a new photomosaic of Cassini images showing the bodies of liquid hydrocarbon in Titan's northern hemisphere.
The $3.2 billion Cassini mission launched in 1997 and has been orbiting Saturn since 2004. In recent months, scientists noted several changes as summer approaches in the northern hemisphere of Titan, such as a surprising rise in the moon's atmosphere.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

An Explanation of Fed Tapering and its Impact on the Markets


The Fed has decided to taper its quantitative easing policy by $10 billion per month, to $75 billion. Chairman Ben Bernanke expects the program to wind down steadily through 2014 and conclude by year-end, assuming the economy remains healthy. See the details of the decision here.
What is Fed Tapering?
“Tapering” is a term that exploded into the financial lexicon on May 22, when U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated in testimony before Congress that that Fed may taper - or reduce - the size of the bond-buying program known as quantitative easing (QE). The program, which is designed to stimulate the economy, has served the secondary purpose of supporting financial market performance in recent years.
While Bernanke's surprising pronouncement led to substantial turmoil in the financial markets during the second quarter, the Fed did not officially announce its first reduction in QE until December 18, 2013, at which point it reduced the program to $75 billion per month from its original level of $85 billion. The reason for this move was that the economy had become strong enough for the Fed to feel confident in reducing the level of stimulus.
Currently, the consensus estimate is that the Fed will continue to reduce the size of its QE program through 2014 and ultimately wind it up by the end of the year. However, this isn't necessarily a guarantee given that 1) the program is data-dependant and 2) both the Fed chairmanship the several board positions will change early next year. As a result, both the timing and extent of the QE withdrawal remains uncertain.
("Data dependant" means that weak growth would lead to a continuation of quantitative easing, improved growth and/or rising inflation would prompt the Fed to continue the program's reduction).

That same day, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee – or FOMC, the committee that sets monetary policy – revealed that support for QE is by no means unanimous:

“Participants also touched on the conditions under which it might be appropriate to change the pace of asset purchases. Most observed that the outlook for the labor market had shown progress since the program was started in September (2012), but many of these participants indicated that continued progress, more confidence in the outlook, or diminished downside risks would be required before slowing the pace of purchases would become appropriate. A number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth; however, views differed about what evidence would be necessary and the likelihood of that outcome.”


For a full, up-to-date explanation of Fed policy, see Current Federal Reserve Policy: A Layperson’s Explanation
Bernanke followed up his previous statements in the press conference that followed the Fed's meeting on July 19. While stating that the quantitative easing policy remains in place for now, the Fed Chairman also the policy remains dependant on incoming data. Given the improvement in the U.S. economy, he expects this data-driven approach will prompt him to begin to taper QE before the end of 2013, with the program ending entirely in 2014.
With this as background, the markets expected the tapering to occur at the Fed's September 18, 2013 meeting. However, the central bank surprised the markets by electing to keep QE at $85 billion per month. This shift was likely caused by two factors: 1) a string of weaker economic data that had been released in the prior month and 2) the prospect of slower growth stemming from the oncoming government shutdown and debt ceiling debate.
How Will a Tapering Look?
Tapering isn’t an immediate, dramatic event. Instead, it is likely to take place gradually throughout 2014 so as to create minimal market disruption. Also, it is going to remain dependent on economic conditions. The Fed may pull back slightly if the economy continues to strengthen, but it could also increase the program again if the economy slowed or the financial markets were shocked by an unforeseen crisis.
Tapering Shouldn’t Come as a Surprise
The potential for tapering has existed since QE began. Quantitative easing was never intended to last forever, since each bond purchase expands the Fed’s “balance sheet” by increasing the amount of bonds it owns. Also, in past communications Bernanke had made it clear that the continuation of the program was dependant on incoming economic data.
Bernanke in fact maintained this approach in his May 22 testimony, saying “A premature tightening of monetary policy (i.e., a tapering of quantitative easing) could lead interest rates to rise temporarily but would also carry a substantial risk of slowing or ending the economic recovery and causing inflation to fall further” and “I want to be very clear that a step to reduce the flow of purchases would not be an automatic, mechanistic process of ending the program. Rather, any change in the flow of purchases would depend on the incoming data and our assessment of how the labor market and inflation are evolving.”
Market Reaction to Tapering
While Bernanke’s tapering statement didn’t represent an immediate shift, it nonetheless frightened the markets. In the recovery that has followed the 2008 financial crisis, both stocks and bonds have produced outstanding returns despite economic growth that is well below historical norms. The general consensus, which is likely accurate, is that Fed policy is the reason for this disconnect. Once the Fed begins to pull back on it stimulus, the markets may begin to perform more in line with economic fundamentals – which in this case, means weaker performance. Bonds indeed sold off sharply in the wake of Bernanke's first mention of tapering, while stocks began to exhibit higher volatility than they had previously. The markets subsequently stablized through the second half of 2013 as investors gradually grew more comfortable with the idea of a reduction in QE.



Asian Stocks Rise After Fed Begins Tapering U.S. Stimulus


Asian stocks rose after the Federal Reserve expressed enough confidence in the U.S. labor market to taper asset purchases while still promising to hold interest rates close to zero.
Fast Retailing Co., Asia’s biggest apparel chain, climbed 3.5 percent, pushing Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average toward the highest closing level since 2007 as the yen touched a five year-low against the dollar. Fanuc Corp. (6954), a Japanese maker of factory robots, rose 4 percent to be headed for the highest close on record. Caltex Australia Ltd. surged 11 percent as the petroleum refiner said profit may climb to A$340 million ($300 million).
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.2 percent to 138.56 as of 12:01 p.m. in Tokyo, with more than two stocks rising for each that fell. The Fed announced plans to cut its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion, taking its first step toward unwinding the unprecedented stimulus put in place by outgoing ChairmanBen S. Bernanke to help the economy recover from the worst recession since the 1930s.
“It’s a win win for markets,” Shane Oliver, who helps oversee $131 billion as head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd. in Sydney, said by phone. “They are more optimistic on the employment rate and the economy while still keeping loose monetary policy in place with low rates to support the economy. We’re happy to stay overweight equities and if anything buy a bit more.”

Regional Gauges

Japan’s Topix index rose 0.9 percent and the Nikkei 225 climbed 1.6 percent as the yen touched the lowest intraday level since October 2008. It traded at 103.99 per dollar as of 12:11 p.m. in Tokyo.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index (AS51) jumped 1.6 percent. Trading volume was 50 percent higher than the 30-day intraday average as equity index and single stock options contracts expired. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index gained 0.7 percent after a report showed economic growth accelerated to the fastest pace in almost four years in the third quarter. South Korea’s Kospi index increased 0.1 percent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.2 percent, paring gains of as much as 1.1 percent. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland shares traded in the city lost 0.2 percent, reversing earlier gains. The Shanghai Composite Index was little changed. China’s interest-rate swaps jumped the most since July, touching a record, as the central bank refrained from injecting cash into the financial system.
Fu Shou Yuan International Group Ltd., a death-care provider, jumped 50 percent in Hong Kong in its trading debut.
Taiwan’s Taiex index added 0.4 percent and Singapore’s Straits Time Index increased 0.1 percent.
The Fed said its benchmark interest rate is likely to stay low “well past the time that the unemployment ratedeclines below 6.5 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below” the Fed’s 2 percent goal.

Bernanke Comments

“Reflecting cumulative progress and an improved outlook for the job market, the committee decided today to modestly reduce the monthly pace at which it is adding to the longer-term securities on its balance sheet,” Bernanke told reporters in Washington yesterday after concluding a two-day policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
The U.S. Senate yesterday cleared and sent to President Barack Obama a $1.01 trillion budget deal, lowering the U.S. deficit over 10 years and easing $63 billion in automatic spending cuts. The plan keeps in place about half of the reductions known as sequestration for next year, and about three-quarters of the planned cuts for 2015.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 6.9 percent this year through yesterday as central-bank stimulus shored up global economic growth. The gauge yesterday traded at 13.7 times estimated earnings, compared with 16.3 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and 14.8 for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Best Performer

The Topix rose 45 percent this year through yesterday, the most among 24 major developed markets tracked by Bloomberg, amid unprecedented stimulus by the Bank of Japan in support of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to end 15 years of deflation. The yen slumped 15 percent this year, the most among G-10 nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
Futures on the S&P 500 Index dropped 0.2 percent today after the equities gauge surged 1.7 percent to a record 1,810.65 yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 1.8 percent to 16,167.97, also a record. The cost of protecting against equity losses as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index slid 15 percent, the biggest drop in two months.

If Rates Are Higher, Why Are Emerging Markets ETFs Soaring?


One probable reason we’re seeing a rally in emerging-markets stock Wednesday is the dovish view on interest rates just issued by the Federal Reserve’s key policymakers. Though not as surprising as the $10 billion “taper” in central-bank bond buying, it’s still sure to get bulls’ notice,just as it’s helping the price of gold Wednesday afternoon.
If global central bankers remain committed to ultra-loose monetary policy, Hooray for emerging markets, buy ‘em up! Or something like that.
EPA
Friend of the emerging markets?
But short covering could be another reasoniShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF(EEM) is leaping 2.2%.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see this rally end soon. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has gained today, sitting at 2.88% recently.
Higher interest rates are, as investors discovered in 2013 if they didn’t already know it, bad news for risky assets in the emerging markets.
Insofar as Treasury-bond yields inch closer to 3%, that’s got to be regarded as a negative for emerging-markets investments.
Elsewhere in this niche, Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets (VWO) is ahead by 0.3% in Wednesday afternoon trading, EGShares Emerging Markets Consumer ETF (ECON) is rising by 2.1% iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Minimum Volatility ETF (EEMV) is gaining 1.8% and the leveraged Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3X Shares (EDC) is jumping 6.3%.

Will China Help or Hurt the Global Economy?


China is often portrayed as kind of economic savior to the world. But are its prospects really that bullish for itself and elsewhere?
China's economic growth plans for 2014 we're laid out by the country's top policy leaders at the just completed Central Economic Work Conference. And despite very real signs of a financial slowdown, China is likely to keep its growth rate stubbornly fixed at 7.5% for next year.
A less accommodative monetary stance by China's leaders is problematic for "risk on" assets, like equities (VPL- News). 
The PBOC is focused on belt tightening of China's credit markets, particularly on excessive leverage in the interbank marketplace. Last month, the yield on China's 10-year bonds surged the most since 2007 to around 4.72%.
OCBC Viewpoint observes, "The tight bias may remain going into 2014 given China's money supply growth M2 remains high at 14.2% at November, well above government's target of 13% which was set in the beginning of the year."
As always, market prices always trump GDP forecasts and other tertiary data.
Rather than being a "Knight in Shining Armor," Chinese stocks have been clear underperformers relative to the rest of emerging markets (VWO - News) and developed markets (VEA - News). Over the past five years, the iShares China Large Cap ETF (FXI - News) has risen just 23.47% compared to a more than 60% jump for broadly diversified equity emerging market ETFs like VWO.
Although Chinese stocks (GXC - News) have rebounded from their summer lows, more recently, they're showing signs of continued weakness and have dropped around 3.3% over the past month.
In our Weekly ETF Pick from 12/4 we wrote:
"While we respect the rally Chinese and all emerging market stocks have enjoyed, we're nonetheless suspicious about the sustainability of the run. Aside from huge systematic risks, the Federal Reserve's eventual scale back of QE is a threat to rising asset prices. The ProShares UltraShort FTSE China 25 ETF (FXP - News) aims for double daily opposite performance to a basket of large cap Chinese stocks and we're buying FXP at $14.65."
Since our 12/4 trade alert, FXP has risen around 6%, our stop losses have been increased to protect profits, and if the selloff in Chinese stocks builds momentum, more gains are ahead for patient bears.
The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter uses technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis along with market history and common sense to keep investors on the right side of the market. Since the beginning of the year, 74% of our weekly ETF picks have been winners.

Wipro trains students in finance, accounts online


Bangalore, Dec 18 (IANS) Indian IT bellwether Wipro Ltd unveiled an online programme to train undergraduate students in finance and accounts to enhance their job skills in both subjects, the company said Wednesday.
"We have started imparting skills online to final year students of commerce and business administration in select degree colleges across Bangalore, Chennai and Hyderabad to enhance their employability in finance and accounting," Wipro back office global head Subhasish Biswas said in a statement here.

The online course has been designed in two parts - basics of finance and accounting and corporate readiness training.
Successful students will be certified after assessing their skills for a placement in the global software major.
The 24-hour programme consists of modules, which give students flexibility to work over two months along with their graduation course.

The course modules are in a video-based PowerPoint presentation format to understand the concepts.
"As we need readily employable workforce, our expertise in training delivery in the services sector enabled us to create a platform for graduating students to pursue a rewarding career in finance and accounts," Biswas said.
Wipro's business process outsourcing (BPO) division has partnered with Firstnaukri.com to promote the initiative and allow the job portal to host the online module and distribute it to colleges with which it has tie-up across the country.
"Indian businesses are struggling to recruit youth with right technical and soft skill sets. It is becoming imperative for companies to focus on skill development and employability of youth entering workforce," Firstnaukri.com business head Deepali Singh said in the statement.


Europe moves towards scheme to close failing banks


By Annika Breidthardt and John O'Donnell
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union edged closer to agreeing a scheme to close failing banks but will leave big gaps in a wider reform that was supposed to unite the euro zone behind its troubled lenders.
More than five years since a financial crisis struck, Europe is crafting its most ambitious reform since the launch of the euro - an agency and fund to shut problem banks as soon as the European Central Bank starts to police them next year.
European leaders - who meet at a summit on Thursday and Friday - want to sign off on a deal so that this banking union can start in 2015, bolstering confidence.
The aim is to prevent a repeat of the turmoil when failing banks in countries from Ireland to Cyprus brought their states to the brink of bankruptcy.
By setting up a system to shutter troubled lenders, Europe would equip the ECB with the means of dealing with teetering banks. However, the system that is emerging, in an attempt to accommodate sceptical countries, is unwieldy.
Earlier in the talks, Michel Barnier, the European commissioner in charge of financial regulation, warned ministers against creating a "complex" system. "We have to move fast in emergencies to resolve certain banks," he told finance ministers in Brussels.
The ECB also unsuccessfully sought backing for a fast-track procedure to circumvent a laborious process that could involve ministers from across Europe in deciding the fate of a sick bank, taking days to conclude.
The long-winded process taking shape also drew heavy criticism from the European Parliament, which has a say in the reform.
Sharon Bowles, one of its most influential members, warned that lawmakers would stop any scheme that allowed "politics and bully tactics". "We do not want any more fiascos like those witnessed with Dexia and Fortis," she said.
BLUNT MESSAGE
Central elements of the banking union are still missing. For one, Germany continues to stand firm against the use of euro zone money to back a scheme for tackling troubled banks.
Its finance minister said no money from the euro zone's rescue fund, the 500-billion-euro European Stability Mechanism (ESM), would be available directly for bank clean-ups.
Instead, a government struggling to pay for a failing bank will have to ask for an ESM-paid-for bailout, a humiliating step with strict conditions attached.
That deals a blow to a central tenet of banking union as it was originally conceived, namely that weak governments should not be left to cope with banks, whose problems can buckle a country.
"The only way to the ESM is through the nation states," Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters, reiterating the long-held German view that such help can be given only to governments and not directly to banks.
Unlike in the United States, where the federal government can transfer funds to help weaker states, countries in the euro zone do not send such aid. Germany, which makes up more than a third of the euro zone's economy, wants to keep it that way.
Instead, euro zone ministers agreed that banks will pay into funds for the closure of failed lenders, amassing roughly 55 billion euros over 10 years.
When the fund is full, it could borrow but without the ESM's financial muscle to back it.
Schaeuble's blunt message jarred with that of other ministers, who appeared to understand the role of the ESM differently.
The dissonant voices cast a question mark over whether the new scheme to close banks and the entire banking union project.
"Using the ESM has not been ruled out at all," Luis de Guindos, Spain's economy minister, told reporters, a line echoed by his Italian counterpart Fabrizio Saccomanni.
French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici conceded, however, that work on the shape of the backstop remained to be done.
"We wanted a backstop," he said. "We are working on its definition, which will evolve over time with several possibilities."
The ECB, on whose support many banks depend, has become agitated because delays and uncertainty over how failed lenders will be dealt with could compromise a clean up the financial sector after ECB health checks next year.
ECB President Mario Draghi, said on Monday that the latest plan to close bad banks may be too complex and inadequately funded. But there is little chance of a change without German consent.
Completing a banking union is central to keeping the euro safe in the long term, a currency bloc that is as political in its goal of deepening European integration as it is economic.
The euro lacks the workings of a normal currency union such as in the United States, which has a central finance ministry and regulators alongside a central bank. Europe's banking union had promised to help change that.
What results in the end is likely to be far off what was originally hoped for. One leg, a common system of deposit guarantees, has been entirely dropped.
(Additional reporting by Emmanuel Jarry, Francesco Guarascio, Robin Emmott, Martin Santa and Jan Strupczewski. Writing by John O'Donnell. Editing by Mike Peacock and David Evans)

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