Obama Holds 6-Point Average Lead Over McCain in Polls

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama has an average lead of 6.4 percentage points over John McCain in national polls with two days left in the presidential campaign.

Polls released in the last week showed the Democratic candidate with leads ranging from three points in a Fox News survey to 13 points in a CBS News poll. The average of polls compiled by Real Clear Politics shows that Obama has been ahead between five and eight points since the beginning of October.

``Obama's is a campaign about gaining a lead and then holding it,'' said Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University in New Jersey. ``McCain's last two weeks have not changed this. Most important, the context of the election has remained the same -- an economy in crisis -- so it is hard to get those numbers to move.''

After pulling ahead of Obama in some polls following the Republican National Convention in the first week of September, McCain's support slid as the financial crisis deepened, with voters considering Obama better able to manage the economy.

That trend has been reflected in the so-called battleground states where the presidential election will be decided.

Ohio

In Ohio, which no Republican has ever lost and still won the presidency, 50 percent of registered voters surveyed in an Oct. 25-27 Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll said they trusted Obama to make the right decisions about the economy compared with 38 percent who backed McCain. The poll showed Obama leading by nine percentage points over McCain in Ohio.

A Columbus Dispatch poll released today showed Obama has a six-point lead, virtually identical to the seven-point lead he held a month ago. If the Illinois senator's lead of 52 percent to 46 percent in the Dispatch poll holds, he will become the first Democrat to win more than 50 percent of the Ohio vote since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, according to the newspaper.

Obama also holds an advantage in other contested states, including Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada, all of which were won by Republican George W. Bush in 2004.

A Denver Post poll released today shows Obama holding a lead of 49 percent to 44 percent for McCain among likely voters in Colorado, with unaffiliated voters -- who make up more than a third of the electorate -- backing the Democrat 57 percent to 32 percent.

Pennsylvania

Even so, McCain has pulled closer to Obama in Pennsylvania, according to an Oct. 30 Rasmussen poll. Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are two states won by 2004 Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry in which McCain is still actively campaigning. The Republican nominee campaigned in Pennsylvania yesterday and plans to hold a rally in New Hampshire later today.

The Rasmussen poll of 700 likely voters conducted Nov. 1 gave Obama a 52 percent to 46 percent lead in Pennsylvania, compared with 53-46 four days earlier. The poll has a 4 percent margin of error.

In New Hampshire, a WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll released yesterday showed Obama with 52 percent support among likely voters compared with 41 percent for McCain. The poll, taken Oct. 29-31, surveyed 549 voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Indiana

In Indiana, a state that hasn't backed a Democratic presidential nominee since 1964, Obama and McCain were tied at 47 percent. The survey of 900 likely voters taken Oct. 27-29 by the Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne had a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points. Obama campaigned Oct. 31 in Gary, Indiana, speaking to a crowd of about 45,000 at a nighttime rally.

The final Richmond Times-Dispatch poll showed Obama leading McCain 47 percent to 44 percent in Virginia, with nine percent of voters undecided. Because Obama's advantage is within the poll's margin of error -- plus or minus 4 percentage points --- the contest in Virginia can be considered about even, the paper said.

McCain, 72, is in close races with Obama in Florida, North Carolina and North Dakota. Those states were won by Bush in the last election, and the Republican candidate needs to win them Nov. 4 in order to have a chance of gaining the 270 Electoral College votes required to win the presidency.

National Polls

In national polls, Obama led McCain, 51 percent to 43 percent in a Gallup daily tracking poll of those deemed likely to cast ballots based on past voting behavior and current intentions.

Obama led 49 percent to 47 percent in a Gallup poll taken Oct. 25-27, before his 30-minute ad was broadcast on network and cable channels on Oct. 29. The latest survey was taken Oct. 30 - Nov. 1 among 2,503 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A CBS poll released yesterday showed Obama's lead even wider, with 54 percent support to 41 percent for McCain. The poll, taken Oct. 28-31, surveyed 747 likely voters. Among the one-fifth of voters who already cast ballots, 57 percent voted for Obama and 38 percent backed McCain, according to the poll.

A Rasmussen daily tracking poll of 3,000 likely voters taken Oct. 29-31 gave Obama a 51 percent to 46 percent lead, with a margin of error of 2.0 percentage points.

And a survey by the Poughkeepsie, New York-based Marist College Institute for Public Opinion put Obama ahead of McCain, 50 percent to 43 percent. The poll of 543 likely voters taken Oct. 29 had a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

The latest CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey, the last before the election, showed 53 percent of likely voters saying they back Obama, while 46 percent support McCain. Obama's lead in this poll has ranged from five to nine points over the last month.

`Complacency'

``The main thing I worry about is complacency,'' David Axelrod, the chief strategist for the Obama campaign, said in an interview on ``This Week'' on ABC. ``If we are casual about this and we don't go to the polls and make our voices heard, then we could get a result that the polls don't project. That's why we're hopscotching all over the country.''

The Fox poll of likely voters found that 47 percent would vote for Obama and 44 percent for McCain if the election were held today. In a similar poll on Oct. 20 and 21, McCain trailed by 9 percentage points.

The Fox poll of 924 registered voters was conducted Oct. 28- 29 and had a margin of error of 3.0 percentage points.